BRIDGETOWN, Barbados (CMC) — The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Wednesday said that the second half of the hurricane season is forecast to have frequent wet days and wet spells in the Caribbean.
The hurricane season started on June 1 and ends on November 30 and in its latest publication looking at the climate outlooks for September to November, CariCOF said that the wet periods will be accompanied by “ample tropical cyclone activity in Belize and the Caribbean islands”.
“This results in frequent disruptions of outdoor activities and enhances water levels in soils, rivers and reservoirs. The potential for flash floods, long-term flooding and cascading impacts is high.”
CariCOF said that through September in the Bahamas and Greater Antilles and through October in the Lesser Antilles, heat stress will be peaking during heat waves.
“By contrast, this period marks the hot, dry season in the Guianas. Yet, higher than usual numbers of wet spells may lead to slow regression of any flood waters,” it added.
CariCOF said that shorter term drought might possibly develop or continue in the northern Bahamas, southeast Belize, and Dominica, while long term drought is evolving in The Bahamas and might possibly develop or continue in Dominica, coastal French Guiana, Martinique, St Vincent and parts of Suriname.
In its climate outlook for the period, December to February next year, CariCOF said that there are indications that climatic conditions during the early 2021-22 dry season might be characteristic of a La Niña, possibly being wetter than usual from Dominica southwards, but possibly drier than usual in the Bahamas, the Cayman Islands and Cuba.
“This results in a lingering potential for flooding, flash floods, and cascading hazards through the end of 2021. In addition, tropical cyclone activity may still occur as late as December. On a brighter note, chances are good that drought impacts should not be widespread during the first half of the dry season. Comfortably cool,” it added.
