(CMC) – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Tuesday said La Niña conditions are in place and as a result, high flooding, flash flood, landslide, rockfall and soil erosion potential across Belize and the Caribbean Islands will prevail until December and, from late- November, in the coastal Guianas.
In its latest edition of Caribbean Climate Outlook Newsletter, CariCOF said with the transition into the dry season in Belize and the islands, frequent, short dry spells are expected from Hispaniola westward, potentially impacting unprotected crop farming, especially in the case of pre-existing drought.
“On a positive note, with the 2021 Heat Season ending in October, heat stress should quickly subside,” it added.
CariCOF said that for the period July to September, this part of the wet/heat/hurricane season is forecast to bring an increase in rainfall totals, wet days and wet spells, and tropical cyclone activity in the Caribbean Islands and in Belize.
“This results in an increase in disruptions of outdoor activities and rising water levels in soils, rivers and reservoirs. However, the potential for flash floods, long-term flooding and cascading impacts will increase from moderate in July to high in August and September.
“Though to a lesser degree than in recent hot years, example 2020, heat stress will also increase along due to higher humidity levels and reduced winds after July. The Guianas will enter their dry season in August and floods should then recede in affected areas, but the improvements may be slow in view of forecasted higher numbers of wet spells than usual.”
CariCOF said that there is no concern for long-term drought by the end of November 2022 at this time.
