The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) Monday said North Atlantic temperatures should remain well above average, continuing to fuel unusually strong tropical cyclone activity.
In its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks, CariCOF said that for the period October to December this year, there would be amplified heat stress through October with higher temperatures, humidity and heatwave frequency.
It said that this would fuel a record-breaking Caribbean heat season.
CariCOF said that there would also be an increase in shower intensity during the peak of the wet season, leading to a high potential for flooding and cascading hazards.
“However, a moderate to strong El Niño in the Pacific should dampen rainfall frequency in Belize and the southern Caribbean, where drought concerns arise. Heat and drought are a growing concern in the coastal Guianas, as is flood potential through December,” CariCOF added.
It said as of September, severe, or worse short-term drought has developed in Grand Cayman, French Guiana, northern Guyana, eastern Suriname, Tobago, US Virgin Islands.
Long-term drought to the end of November is evolving in western Belize, Dominica, southern French Guiana, Martinique, southeast Puerto Rico, St Vincent, Trinidad and Tobago, and might possibly develop or continue in Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao, Barbados, French Guiana, Grenada, St Lucia, and Sint Maarten/St Martin.
CariCOF said short-term drought to the end of December, is evolving in central and southern French Guiana, Suriname, Trinidad, and might possibly develop in Dominica, Guyana, Martinique, St Lucia, St Vincent, and northern French Guiana.
