(CMC) – The Barbados-based Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) says cooling temperatures in the equatorial Pacific may possibly result in a progressive transition to La Niña while near record warm Tropical North Atlantic Ocean are set to continue.
“Therefore, an intense peak and tail end of the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season, the Caribbean Wet Season and the Caribbean Heat Season, implying frequent and intense episodes of oppressive humid heat; and tropical cyclones and severe weather, resulting in high potential for flooding, flash floods, cascading hazards and associated impacts,” CariCOF said in its latest Caribbean Climate Outlooks publication.
In its outlook for the period September to December, CariCOF said though unpredictable conditions in the atmosphere can, at times, present barriers to extreme activity of these three types of seasons, they are unlikely to persist throughout the period.
It said during the period May to July this year, a record-warm Tropical North Atlantic had continued to fuel record-breaking temperatures, as well as the usual or even larger than the usual rainfall totals during the transition into the Caribbean wet season, including record rainfall in inland Guyana and Suriname. Nevertheless, long-term drought remains in place in northern Guyana and westernmost Jamaica.
CariCOF said that as of August 1, this year, severe or worse short-term drought has developed in in western Jamaica and southwest Trinidad with long-term drought in southwest Belize, French Guiana, northern Guyana, western Jamaica and eastern Suriname.
Long-term drought at the end of November is evolving in French Guiana, and Trinidad, and might possibly develop or continue in western and southeastern Belize, northern Guyana and Tobago.
In a brief climate outlook for the period December 2024 to February 2025, this period marks the first half of the Caribbean dry season and the core of the Cool Season.
“An unseasonably warm Tropical North Atlantic, potentially combined with La Niña conditions is forecast. Consequently, unusually high air temperatures and humidity remain likely in many locations, but a steady decrease in heat stress is expected in November as the region transitions into the Cool Season by December.”
It said the risk of severe weather impacts from frequent tropical cyclones or other shower activity, including flooding, flash floods, and cascading impacts should be initially high to extremely high through December in Belize and the islands, but subsequently decrease. Unusually copious rainfall totals are forecast in the Guianas, Jamaica and the Lesser Antilles, CariCOF added.
