In\u00a0the wake of last week’s release of the\u00a0IPCC 1.5 Report\u00a0, Dean of the Faculty of Science and Technology at The University of the West Indies (The UWI), Mona and a lead author of the report Professor Michael Taylor has pointed out that scientists from the Caribbean and other small island state regions have been preaching for years that 1.5\u00b0C should be the target temperature increase in the race to dial down the projected negative impacts of climate change.<\/p>\n
The report, the latest in a series from the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessing scientific, technical, and socio-economic information regarding climate change, reveals that the planet \u2014 particularly Small Island States (SIDS) \u2014 will reach 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels as early as 2030.<\/p>\n
Compared to 2\u00b0C, 1.5\u00b0C would mean lower water stress, less intense rainfall during tropical cyclones, and less exposure to irreversible sea level rise. At 1.5\u00b0C some coral reefs will be able adapt, while at 2\u00b0C their chances of survival are next-to-none, and the fisheries and livelihoods that depend on them will be irrevocably damaged.<\/p>\n
\u201cCaribbean scientists have long held the position that (global temperature rise of) 1.5\u00b0C may be the limit of global warming that vulnerable regions such as ours can tolerate,\u201d Dr Taylor said.<\/p>\n
The position \u2014 framed with the tag line ‘1.5 to Stay Alive’ \u2014 was the basis of the negotiating arguments which Caribbean governments tabled at the global climate change conference in Paris in 2016.<\/p>\n
\u201c[But] even 1.5\u00b0C poses significant risks to the most vulnerable. Global action on climate change is not optional but is a must. I am hoping we can spur a region-wide movement in response to this report, its findings and the significance for the region. Every half degree of warming counts. The global target of 1.5\u00b0C comes with significant risk [but] these risks pale compared to 2\u00b0C, which has long been viewed as the realistic target.<\/p>\n
\u201cTo keep warming at 1.5\u00b0C requires significant global transformation in energy, transport etc. In the Caribbean, we must undertake those measures geared at adaptation and mitigation. We must also by example, or influence, persuasion or advocacy, model the social order that living within 1.5\u00b0C demands,\u201d Taylor argued.<\/p>\n
Professor Taylor spearheaded the regional input in the document and wrote the report’s summary for policymakers.<\/p>\n
The report, Taylor said, has for the first time in the history of IPCC reports, provided \u201cconcrete information on loss and damage\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt has laid out some limits to adaptation will have already been reached at 1.5\u00b0C, and indicated that at 2\u00b0C there is a much higher chance of irreversible losses,\u201d the authors say.<\/p>\n
Professor Leonard Nurse of the Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies at the UWI Cave Hill and contributing author of the report stressed that it’s small island states that will bear the brunt of the temperature fallout and argued that deep emission cuts are the best way to stave off the worst projected effects.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe conclusions are clear. While the application of various mitigation and adaptation technologies will be helpful, there is absolutely no substitute for deep emission cuts at source, particularly in high emitting countries. The report also corroborates previous IPCC findings that small island and low-lying states such as ours in the Caribbean are among the countries at highest risk,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
\u201cIn practical terms, this means that in spite of all the mitigation and adaptation measures we implement, our fate still lies in the hands of the developed, industrialised north and other high emitters, some of which are still classified as developing countries. The report identifies pathways for reducing global greenhouse gas emissions to a level that might achieve a target less than 2\u00b0C, even if the more desirable 1.5\u00b0C target is elusive. What the report also suggests, if only by implication, is that global politics and policy now need to catch up with the reality of the science,\u201d Professor Nurse explained.<\/p>\n
Nurse was part of The UWI team \u2014 the others being professors Anthony Chen and John Agard \u2014 that shared in the glory of the Nobel Peace Prize jointly awarded to the IPCC and Al Gore Jr in 2007.<\/p>\n
The authors also pointed out that IPCC 1.5 Report, \u201cputs to rest claims that 1.5\u00b0C cannot be achieved. Holding warming to 1.5\u00b0C throughout the 21st century is feasible, and is likely to have considerable sustainable development benefits. What is standing in the way is a lack of real commitment to ambitious action from governments and non-state actors\u201d.<\/p>\n
They added that the comitments amde under the Paris Agreement aren’t sufficient.<\/p>\n
\u201cIt shows that all countries and non-state actors need to act and that, to date, action hasn’t been sufficient,\u201d they said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe world needs to make an urgent switch from fossil fuels to renewables. We must decarbonise the electricity sector by 2050. This means rapidly reducing our energy demand and rapidly accelerating the energy system transformation that has already started. We need to halve global C02 emissions in the next 10 years (by 2030 from 2010 levels). And the first \u2013 and most urgent \u2013 thing to do is to phase out our use of coal to zero by 2050,\u201d the report says.<\/p>\n
Speaking on The UWI’s contributions to the report, Vice-Chancellor Professor Sir Hilary Beckles conveyed pride in the work of the university’s scientists.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis kind of work reaffirms the relevance of The UWI to the region as an activist university. The climate change discourse will reveal the need for this region to address the fundamental issues: economic growth, technological advancements, inequality, democracy and social justice. All of those big issues come into the fore of the climate change issue,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Jeremy Collymore, Honorary Research Fellow at the Institute for Sustainable Development, and resilience consultant to the Office of the Vice-Chancellor said the university will use the report to organise internal briefings with its research, teaching and administrative staff.<\/p>\n
\u201cThis global assent provides a platform for advancing our sustainable development agenda informed by considerations based on 1.5\u00b0C scenarios in the first instance. The UWI will also be supporting efforts to brief regional policy makers, technocrats, private sector and civil society on the 1.5 to Stay Alive agenda and the options for enhancing resilience. The\u00a0science is not in question, but the commitment to action may be,\u201d said Collymore.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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