WASHINGTON, United States (CMC) \u2014 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says while Latin America and Caribbean economies managed to bounce back from COVID-19’s initial economic devastation earlier in 2020, the pandemic’s resurgence towards the end of the year threatens to thwart an uneven recovery and add to the steep social and human costs.<\/p>\n
\u201cAfter the sharp contraction in the second quarter of last year, the brisk recovery in the third quarter exceeded expectations in some larger economies, like Brazil, Peru and Argentina,\u201d said the Washington-based financial institution in a statement.<\/p>\n
\u201cManufacturing recovered faster than services. Net exports have recovered to pre-crisis levels while consumption and investment are lagging,\u201d it added.<\/p>\n
The IMF said early indicators, like industrial production and retail sales, pointed to a continuing comeback in the last quarter of 2020, boosted by sizeable fiscal stimulus, easy global financial conditions, \u201cand economic agents’ resilience and adaptation to the new reality\u201d.<\/p>\n
The IMF upgraded its 2020 forecast for the region from -8.1 to -7.4 per cent.<\/p>\n
\u201cHowever, this already uneven recovery has been threatened by the pandemic’s recent resurgence and the reintroduction of stricter containment measures in some countries, as well as spillovers from the slowdown in the global economy,\u201d it said.<\/p>\n
The IMF said new cases and deaths have increased in the past two months in South and Central America, \u201cthough there are signs of stabilisation more recently\u201d.<\/p>\n
It said hospital capacity is stretched in many countries, adding that testing capacity remains low compared to advanced and other emerging economies, despite some improvements since August.<\/p>\n
Despite this resurgence, the IMF revised its regional 2021 growth forecast upwards to 4.1 per cent (from 3.6 per cent in October), based on the stronger than expected performance in 2020, an expectation of expanding vaccination efforts, better growth outlook for the United States, and higher prices of some commodities.<\/p>\n
Growth is expected to accelerate later in the year, the IMF said.<\/p>\n
\u201cThe pandemic’s social and human costs have been immense, and cast a large shadow over this forecast,\u201d it said, stating that over 16 million people are estimated to have fallen into poverty.<\/p>\n
The IMF said employment remains below pre-crisis levels and inequality likely increased in most countries.<\/p>\n
It said more than 18 million people have been infected, and half a million have died.<\/p>\n
\u201cFailure to contain new infections, imposition of new lockdowns, and the consequent change in people’s behaviour would all weigh on growth,\u201d the IMF warned. \u201cA weaker rebound in labour markets would cause more permanent social damage.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cA sudden change in international investors’ sentiment would put pressure on countries with fiscal and external vulnerabilities,\u201d it added. \u201cOn the upside, success in vaccination and containing the pandemic, to which most countries are strongly committed, as well as additional fiscal support would create the conditions for a faster recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n
The IMF said the aggregate forecast masks important differences across countries.<\/p>\n
While growth for this year in Brazil, Mexico, Chile, Colombia, and Peru was revised up, it was downgraded for the Caribbean, from four to 2.4 per cent, \u201cbecause resumption in vital travel and tourism activity has been much slower than anticipated,\u201d the IMF said.<\/p>\n
It said Central America has been supported by robust remittances, rising food prices and effective policy support.<\/p>\n
The IMF also said that Central America and the Caribbean face the additional risk of natural disasters, \u201cas shown by the devastation of hurricanes Eta and Iota last November\u201d.<\/p>\n
\u201cFull recovery is still a long way ahead, though,\u201d the international financial institution, however, cautioned. \u201cWe forecast that the region will go back to its pre-pandemic levels of output only in 2023, and GDP (gross domestic product) per capita in 2025, later than other parts of the world.\u201d<\/p>\n
\u201cThe crisis had a disproportionately large impact on employment with losses concentrated among women, young, informal and less educated workers \u2014 with consequences for social indicators,\u201d it added.<\/p>\n
\u201cGiven all the uncertainties, countries’ first priority should be to ensure adequate resources for health care systems, including vaccination and testing,\u201d the IMF continued. \u201cAnd second, continue supporting vulnerable sectors most affected by the pandemic and cementing the uncertain recovery.\u201d<\/p>\n
Removing too much fiscal support too early would jeopardize these goals, it warned.<\/p>\n
\u201cCountries with room in their budget for more spending should continue providing support to their economies while making it more targeted, an effort that would certainly accelerate the recovery,\u201d the IMF said. \u201cCountries with limited spending capacity should prioritize health and household support.\u201d<\/p>\n
It said countries can find the space for more spending in constrained budgets if they can demonstrate commitment to credible and sustainable medium-term fiscal policies once the pandemic is over.<\/p>\n
The IMF said the current low interest rate environment suggests that this \u201cfiscal space\u201d might have been underestimated, particularly in large economies, where interest expenses are at low levels despite sharp increases in debt as percentage of GDP.<\/p>\n
It recommended that fiscal policy continue to be supported by expansionary monetary policy in countries where inflation expectations are well-anchored.<\/p>\n
\u201cFinancial sector policies should continue facilitating liquidity support to the corporate sector, aiming to make it more targeted without compromising financial stability,\u201d the IMF said.<\/p>\n
It said the pandemic hit Latin America and Caribbean harder because of its many inherent structural fragilities.<\/p>\n
For example, the IMF said more people working in sectors that require close proximity and less in which teleworking is feasible.<\/p>\n
It said the region has paid \u201ca high toll\u201d in terms of infections and deaths relative to its population.<\/p>\n
The IMF said it has been supporting Latin America and the Caribbean with policy advice, technical assistance and financing, providing over US$66 billion to 21 countries, including contingency lines.<\/p>\n
It said this amounts to over two-thirds of the emergency liquidity support extended globally.<\/p>\n
\u201cAnd we stand ready to do more,\u201d the IMF assured.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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